About:
The old VUCA model no longer captures the reality leaders face today. BANI—brittle, anxious, nonlinear, and incomprehensible—is the more accurate lens. Instead of merely volatile, systems are so optimized they’ve become fragile, breaking under shocks like supply chain disruptions or tech outages. People areZ36JFJFePnI?si=yiiL4B2PBnQPvVTjiving with constant anxiety driven by crises, polarization, and job insecurity, while nonlinear events—like sudden AI releases or meme-stock surges—produce outsized, unpredictable consequences. In a world that often can’t be fully understood, leaders must prioritize resilience over efficiency, reduce anxiety with honesty and empathy, embrace experimentation over linear planning, and make timely decisions even when the full picture is impossible to see.
Sources:
BANI Framework & Leadership
• Cascio, Jamais; Johansen, Bob; & Williams, Angela F. (2025). Navigating the Age of Chaos: A Sense-Making Guide to a BANI World That Doesn’t Make Sense. (Hardcover)
• Kruse, Kevin (2025). Forget VUCA: BANI Is the New Framework World. Forbes.
VUCA Concept & Organizational Use
• Bennett, Nathan & Lemoine, G. James (2014). What VUCA Really Means for You. Harvard Business Review.
• U.S. Army War College (1987). VUCA Framework—origin in military strategic planning.
Political Environment / Higher Ed Reckoning
• Chronicle of Higher Education (2023–2025). Various articles on DEI rollbacks, accreditation debates, and political pressures.
• American Council on Education (2024). Trends in Higher Education Governance.
• Inside Higher Ed (2023). The Future of Carnegie Classifications.
Fourth Turning Reference
• Strauss, William & Howe, Neil (1997). The Fourth Turning: What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendevous with Destiny.
• Howe, Neil (2023). The Fourth Turning Is Here.
AI Adoption & Disruption
• OpenAI (2024). ChatGPT User Metrics – Estimated 1 billion daily users across models.
• Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (HAI) 2025 AI Index Report.
• McKinsey & Company (2023). The Economic Potential of Generative AI.
• Todd McLees Quote – Cited in multiple higher ed conference keynotes and AI & workforce blogs (e.g., FutureFit Learning).
AI-Only Schools, Tools & Platforms
• Alpha School (2024). Launch announcement and model coverage in EdSurge and Forbes.
• Khan Academy (2024). Kahnmigo Usage Metrics, blog.khanacademy.org.
AI Speed & Cost Reductions
• ARK Invest (2024). Big Ideas Report – AI performance vs. cost curve.
• SemiAnalysis (2024). AI compute economics: 4X performance gain, 95% cost drop.
Real-Time Translation & Language Capabilities
• Apple (2024). AirPods Pro 3 Product Announcement – live translation feature.
• OpenAI & Google DeepMind – ChatGPT & Gemini support for 100+ languages.
Socioeconomic Pressures / "Everyone's Got Stuff"
• Pew Research Center (2023). Middle Class Shrinking Trends.
• Urban Institute (2024). State of U.S. Healthcare Access & Affordability.
• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – Wage stagnation data (2023–2024).
Community College Enrollment & Completion
• National Student Clearinghouse Research Center (Spring 2025). Community College Enrollment Trends.
• American Association of Community Colleges (AACC, 2024). Completion Rates Snapshot.
Housing & Food Insecurity
• Hope Center for College, Community, and Justice (2023–2024). #RealCollege Survey Results.
Workforce Shifts & Skill Mismatches
• U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation (2024). The America Works Initiative.
• EMSI/Burning Glass (2023–2024). Skills Gap and Labor Market Mismatch Reports.
• Georgetown CEW (2024). Workforce Projections: 2024–2032.
Postsecondary Workforce Pipeline
• National Center for Education Statistics (NCES). Projections of Education Statistics to 2032.
• Center on Education and the Workforce, Georgetown University (2024). Future Demand for Postsecondary Credentials.
Workforce Generational Needs
• Gallup (2023). State of the Global Workplace.
• Deloitte Insights (2024). Human Capital Trends: Purpose and Belonging at Work.
Credentialing Disruption
• LinkedIn Learning (2024). Skills-First Hiring Trends.
• Google, IBM, Amazon – Company hiring pages & public HR policy updates (2022–2024).
Systemic Convergence of Disruption
• World Economic Forum (2024). Global Risk Report.
• McKinsey Global Institute (2024). Converging Technologies and Workforce Impact.
Closing Framing (Vision, Understanding, Clarity, Adaptability)
• Adapted from Bob Johansen, Institute for the Future (2007). Leaders Make the Future: Ten New Leadership Skills for an Uncertain World.